Real Madrid, Manchester United top panic index
We just started … and now it’s break time. After four matchdays in Spain, three in England, Italy and France and only two in Germany, the first international break of the 2024-25 season is already here. The season began in absurdly disjointed fashion, and such a quick break feels particularly unnecessary after a summer that saw major tournaments such as Euro 2024. (The U.S. hasn’t even officially hired its new coach yet after firing the last one after Copa America.) Still, the break is probably welcome for a few teams that suffered false starts in August.
It’s too early for any team to truly panic — except maybe Everton, who should feel free to do so — but some of Europe’s most celebrated clubs head into this (absurd and unnecessary) break with problems to address and goals that feel less likely than they did at the start of the season. From Real Madrid dropping points (unacceptable at all times), to AC Milan and Spurs getting sliced apart in transition, to Manchester United and Roma forgetting how to shoot, to Valencia creating nothing of value, to Bayer Leverkusen losing (!!!), let’s talk about seven major clubs and just how close they should be to pressing the panic button.
Real Madrid: Can they get Mbappé, Vinicius on the same page?
• 2023-24: first in LaLiga (2.50 points per game, +1.6 goal differential per game)
• 2024-25 to date: second (2.00 points per game, +1.3 goal differential per game)
This one’s all about where you set the bar. Real Madrid are second in LaLiga. They haven’t lost a league match since last September, and haven’t lost a match of any sort since January. They’ve already won a trophy this season (hey, the UEFA Super Cup does count), but we set the bar ridiculously high for this club, and they simply aren’t clearing it at the moment. They haven’t played a good first half all season, and while winning with beautiful bursts of brilliance is the “Real Madrid Way,” they’re a little too reliant on that at the moment: In all three of their season wins, they scored twice in 10 minutes and otherwise plodded along.
In both of their LaLiga road matches to date, those winning bursts never arrived. They suffered 1-1 draws against both Mallorca (who genuinely outplayed them) and Las Palmas, and that has already put them four points behind a torrid Barcelona. And if you compare their underlying numbers to the quality of their league opponents to date, they’re clearly underachieving a bit.
When you add Kylian Mbappé to a team that won the Champions League without Kylian Mbappe, you expect more. But perhaps a slow start was unavoidable.
Panic score: 2 out of 5. There’s nothing wrong that probably won’t be fixed, but Barca could be awfully hard to keep up with this season.
Manchester United: Finishing is an issue
• 2023-24: eighth in the Premier League (1.58 points per game, -0.0 goal differential per game)
• 2024-25 to date: 14th (1.00 points per game, -1.0 goal differential per game)
It wouldn’t be a Panic Index without Manchester United, would it?
After finishing eighth in the Premier League last season despite having the sixth-worst xG differential and the second-most shots allowed — suggesting they were lucky to finish eighth — the club’s new ownership was evidently persuaded by a nice FA Cup title run in electing to retain manager Erik ten Hag for another season. They spent more than €200 million to bring in attacker Joshua Zirkzee, defensive midfielder Manuel Ugarte, fullback Noussair Mazraoui and center-backs Leny Yoro and Matthijs de Ligt, but through three matchdays they currently sit six spots lower in the table than last season.
United are creating a solid number of good scoring chances (3.0 shots per game worth at least 0.2 xG), but none of those shots have ended up in the net, and they’re giving up nearly as many good chances as they’re creating: Opponents have averaged 2.7 shots per game worth at least 0.2 xG, and they’ve scored on five of the eight. United are creating fewer high turnovers (36.0 per game) than they’re giving up (39.0), they’re not tilting the field in their favor, and they’re creating very little from either counterattacking opportunities (only one counterattacking shot in three matches) or buildup play (11th in buildup attacks per game). Only three of their five new signings have been on the pitch — Yoro was injured in the preseason, and they took long enough negotiating the long-rumored Ugarte deal that he didn’t officially sign until Aug. 30 — and their best win of the season thus far was somehow coaxing €30m out of Napoli for midfielder Scott McTominay.
The self-inflicted problems haven’t really ceased, in other words, even if Yoro and Zirkzee are promising young players. The saving grace for United is that while they certainly don’t look like a potential top-four team, they also aren’t as bad as their results.
Despite having played both Liverpool and a hot Brighton, they’ve posted a decent xG differential of +0.3 per game — good for eighth in the league. That’s an improvement over last season, and they’ve primarily been slowed by unsustainably poor finishing.
Zirkzee scored a lovely game-winner late in his debut against Fulham, and Amad Diallo scored to briefly tie the score against Brighton. Ten other United players have attempted 26 shots worth 3.9 xG and scored on none of them. That won’t last. Still, United are already four points outside of the top four, and three of those spots appear to already be reserved for Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool at the end of the season. Opta currently gives ten Hag’s team a 7% chance of finishing in the top four and a 16% chance of finishing in the top five. That’s dreadful for a team that spends at a Champions League level, even if they’re not as bad as their results appear.
Panic score: 5 out of 5. For a normal eighth-place finisher, I would say this is about a 2, but United are never allowed to have a panic score under 5.
