MSD Confident In La Niña Forecast Amid Global Concerns Of Worsening Drought

The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) of Zimbabwe remains confident in its forecast of a La Niña weather event developing in the October–November–December (OND) period, despite concerns from some global meteorological agencies that a weakening La Niña could exacerbate drought conditions across southern Africa.

Head of forecasting, Mr. James Ngoma, reassured the public that the earlier forecast of normal to below-normal rains early in the season remains valid, with prospects of normal to above-normal rainfall improving later in the season.

“There is no need to panic,” said Ngoma. “We are still expecting what we predicted at the start of the season. We will continue to monitor and give the public an information outlook for the coming months.”

The MSD’s initial forecast, issued in August, projected normal to below-normal rainfall for the OND period. However, Mr. Ngoma emphasized that as the season progresses, rainfall is expected to improve, with normal to above-normal rains likely in the second half of the 2024–2025 season.

While the MSD holds firm in its forecast, some global meteorological agencies are reporting a weakening La Niña system, which has raised concerns about its impact on southern Africa. La Niña, typically associated with above-average rainfall in the region, was initially seen as a potential relief to the ongoing drought. However, some agencies now predict a weaker La Niña event, which could be short-lived and insufficient to reverse the drought conditions that have plagued Zimbabwe and much of southern Africa.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently downgraded the likelihood of a significant La Niña event, citing climate models that suggest the phenomenon, if it occurs, will not be strong enough to bring substantial rainfall. Similar concerns were echoed by other meteorological bodies, including a U.S.-based forecast agent, which also reported signals of a weaker-than-expected La Niña.

Despite these global concerns, Mr. Ngoma maintained that both the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional outlook and national forecasts are consistent with predictions from other global weather agencies.

“The SADC regional forecast also predicted a weak La Niña event,” said Ngoma. “This was in line with what we forecasted during the SADC climate outlook meeting held in Zimbabwe in August. We expected neutral conditions with a slight inclination towards a weak La Niña.”

The 29th Annual Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), held earlier this year, also projected that the SADC region would receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the OND period. These forecasts provide some reassurance for the region, which has faced devastating droughts due to El Niño conditions in previous seasons.

While rainfall distribution may be uneven in the early part of the season, Ngoma remains optimistic about improved rainfall in the coming months. “For the OND period, we should expect normal to below-normal rainfall,” he explained. “But as we progress into December, January, February, and March, we are anticipating normal to above-normal rainfall. It may start slowly, but precipitation should increase as the season advances.”

This gradual improvement in rainfall, according to Ngoma, offers hope for a better agricultural season and relief for farmers and communities that have been severely affected by the droughts of the previous season. Zimbabwe, along with other SADC countries, experienced one of the worst droughts in decades during the 2023–2024 cropping season, leading to increased food insecurity and water shortages across the region.

The uncertainty surrounding the strength of the La Niña event remains a critical concern for Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, which relies heavily on seasonal rainfall for crop production. The El Niño-induced droughts of recent years have caused significant disruptions to agriculture, industry, and energy production in southern Africa. With millions of people facing food insecurity, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi have all launched appeals for food aid to support those affected by the drought.

As the 2024–2025 cropping season begins, all eyes are on the La Niña event and its potential to bring much-needed rainfall to the region. The MSD’s forecast of improved rains later in the season provides some hope, but global forecasts suggest that the situation could remain fragile. With the region still reeling from the effects of last season’s drought, the stakes are high as southern Africa prepares for another challenging agricultural year.

In the meantime, the MSD will continue to monitor weather patterns closely and provide regular updates to the public. “We will keep the nation informed as we move through the season,” said Ngoma, underscoring the importance of staying alert to evolving weather conditions.