MSD forecasts hotter and drier 2026/27 summer season as El Niño persists
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has forecast a largely drier-than-normal 2026/27 rainfall season, with a high chance of below-normal rainfall across the country.
In the Zimbabwe National Climate Outlook issued on Friday, 11 September 2026, for the period October 2026 to March 2027, the Met Department said the forecast is based on its assessment of the primary oceanic and atmospheric drivers influencing the SADC region, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
“ENSO is currently in its warm (El Niño) phase and is projected to persist throughout the forecast period,” the MSD said. “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also positive and is expected to remain so until the end of January 2027, before transitioning to neutral in February 2027. Collectively, these phenomena increase the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe.”
Consequently, the forecast indicates a high probability of below-normal rainfall nationwide for the October to December 2026 period.
For January to March 2027, the southern and western parts of the country are expected to receive “normal rainfall, although with a bias toward below-normal totals, while the rest of the country is likely to experience below-normal conditions.”
The MSD said although the outlook is based on global climate drivers, actual rainfall distribution will ultimately depend on the response of local and short-term weather systems.
The department said in October 2026 there is an increased chance of below-normal rainfall in Masvingo, the bulk of the Matabeleland provinces, Bulawayo Metropolitan, much of Midlands, the southern and extreme south-western fringes of Mashonaland West, the southern parts of Mashonaland East, and the greater part of Manicaland.
In the same month, the extreme northern parts of Manicaland, the northern districts of Mashonaland East, the bulk of Mashonaland West and Mashonaland Central, Harare Metropolitan, and the extreme northern fringe of Midlands have an increased chance of normal to below-normal rainfall.
In November 2026, the northern parts of both Mashonaland West and Mashonaland Central have an increased chance of normal to below-normal rainfall, while the remaining parts of the country have an increased chance of below-normal rainfall.
December shows a mixed picture. The MSD said there is an increased chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the southern parts of Matabeleland South, extreme southern parts of Midlands, and extreme south-western parts of Masvingo.
Normal to below-normal rainfall is expected in December in most of Masvingo; extreme south-western Manicaland; extreme southern parts of Mashonaland East; the southern fringe of Mashonaland West; central parts of Midlands; northern and western parts of Matabeleland South; Bulawayo Metropolitan; and most of Matabeleland North.
Below-normal rainfall is expected in December in the extreme northern parts of Midlands and Matabeleland North; most of Mashonaland West, Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East and Manicaland; as well as Harare Metropolitan.
The MSD said the mean onset of the rainfall season in Zimbabwe usually occurs from November to early December. For the forthcoming season, however, “rainfall patterns are projected to be highly erratic, and a significant portion of the country is expected to see no effective start to the season.”
It said historical analogue seasons for this outlook include 2023/24 and 2015/16, “both of which were characterised by a widespread failure of the seasonal onset across much of the country.”
Warmer than normal conditions are expected to prevail across the first three months of the season, with an update for the last three months to be issued as the season progresses.
The department said the forecast is for cumulative rainfall for the three-month periods: October-November-December 2026 and January-February-March 2027, with both periods showing a dry signal across the country, except for December, when normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in southern parts of Matabeleland South, extreme southern parts of Midlands and western parts of Masvingo.
Despite the elevated chances of a drier season, the MSD warned that the risk of violent storms and flash floods remains significant.
“Below normal to normal conditions are associated with high chance of prolonged dry spells, high temperatures, erratic rain patterns and excess heat in the atmosphere also increase chances of violent storms, which may cause flash floods, strong winds, lightning strikes,” the outlook states.
The department advised proactive measures including water harvesting, irrigation planning, drainage maintenance and public health preparedness.
It said it will continue to monitor seasonal climate indicators and urged the public to rely on its continuous short-term guidance.
“A seasonal forecast is a long-term planning tool and therefore it doesn’t replace the need for short term forecasts which are key for capturing the occurrence of short-term weather events such as dry spells, actual onset of season which cannot be captured in a seasonal forecast,” the MSD said.
