SADC climate experts release seasonal forecast for 2024/2025
HARARE – The Southern African Development Community (SADC) convened the 29th Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in Harare, Zimbabwe, from August 26th to 28th, 2024.
The forum brought together climate experts, including Permanent Representatives from SADC Member States to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), along with climate scientists, researchers, and representatives from key sectors such as water, energy, food, disaster risk management, and development partners.
SARCOF, held twice a year, is crucial for analyzing climate variability, assessing the previous season’s rainfall performance, and providing forecasts for the upcoming rainy season. This forum focuses on developing strategies to mitigate climate impacts and crafting early warning systems, which are vital for informed decision-making in climate-related policies across the region.
The forum is also a key component in implementing the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) within the SADC region. The theme for SARCOF-29, “At the Frontline of Climate Action Towards Improved Climate Services in the SADC Region,” emphasized the need for SADC Member States to enhance their national meteorological and hydrological services for more effective implementation of the National Framework for Water and Climate Services.
Dr. Sithembiso G.G. Nyoni, Zimbabwe’s Minister of Environment, Climate, and Wildlife, highlighted the observations made during the 44th SADC Summit, where regional leaders called for continuous monitoring of weather and climate risks, including the evolution of the forecasted La Niña event. She stressed the importance of SARCOF in shaping the regional seasonal rainfall forecast, which provides critical information to SADC Member States for making informed decisions across all sectors.
Dr. Nyoni urged climate experts to consider additional parameters in their forecasts, such as the timing of rainfall onset and cessation, and the expected duration of dry spells. She underscored the severe impacts of extreme weather events, erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts on ecosystems, food security, and the socio-economic stability of the region.
Ms. Mapolao Mokoena, SADC Director of Infrastructure, highlighted SARCOF’s role in utilizing scientific tools to deliver seasonal forecasts that guide decision-making in critical sectors like health, energy, water, and food security. Reflecting on the severe climate impacts experienced during the 2023/2024 season, Ms. Mokoena noted that a humanitarian appeal of US$5.5 billion was issued in May 2024 by the SADC Summit to support over 61 million people affected by El Niño-induced droughts and floods.
Ms. Mokoena also noted the ongoing drought conditions, delayed rains, and extreme heat, which have exacerbated food insecurity, now affecting 67.7 million people, up from 57.1 million in 2023. She praised the efforts of cooperating partners and agencies for their technical support and the role of Regional User Interface Platforms (UIP) in facilitating dialogue between climate experts and sectoral users.
Mr. Tebogo Matlhare, representing the European Union (EU) Delegation to Botswana and SADC, reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to supporting climate interventions in the region through the Intra-ACP Climate Services and related Application (ClimSA) Programme. He highlighted the ClimSA project, funded by the EU, as a significant initiative aimed at enhancing the climate services value chain and empowering SADC stakeholders to effectively access and use climate information.
The forum concluded with the release of the seasonal rainfall forecast for the upcoming period from October 2024 to March 2025.
